The Pandemic of 2049 that almost was

© Philipp Maas

You can’t imagine the scientific institute of the future without a vision of the type of science it will be doing, the type of people who will be doing it, and the culture it will be embedded in.

On June 14, 2049, a patient was admitted to the emergency room in Hannover, Germany, with an undiagnosed but apparently viral disease. A blood sample was taken, inserted into a SmartTube® and immediately analyzed by the hospital’s automated genomics facility. Within minutes an abnormal sequence was detected and transmitted to the Global Virus Alert Network (GVAW), which compared it to an atlas of all known viruses and hosts, then artificial intelligence deduced the most likely origin and steps in its evolution. This confirmed that the patient was suffering from a new viral infection, a variant of a strain normally found in mice. Three hours later the actual virus had been isolated and completely sequenced. Overnight, the Calcutta Health Center identified 17 potential antigens for vaccines. The Cairo Clinical Organoid Facility immediately began robotically testing them on their collection, which had a coverage of approximately 500,000 human genomes. It usually took about a week to get an answer with high confidence. Five versions were ultimately sent to open source molecular printers in hospitals, clinics, and family doctors’ offices around the world, with recommendations on picking the right version for each patient based on specific genomic markers.

* * * * *

Andrea Carriere heard about the virus while taking the metro to her institute. The monitor on her seat identified her and gave her a tailored news feed. Another article reported that world population was on course to reach steady state in just a few years. Chalk that up to 25 years of the male pill, huge international efforts for women’s rights, and sweeping incentive programs. And it was the tenth anniversary of the date that synthetic meats swept the International Gourmet prize, beating out natural meat in all categories.

On Mondays Andrea goes into the lab unless NEM – the National Energy Matrix – tells her to stay home. The energy expenditure of her apartment, her office, and the entire country is constantly being monitored and assessed: who’s taking the train, can one be cut? Will home office on a specific day save or cost the system? She has already shifted her schedule back an hour, and if she is willing to shift it again she’ll earn points with NEM, maybe enough to take a vacation.

Andrea is CEO of an institute that is typical of today’s hybrid research organizations, which have dissolved the old lines between academia, research and business. They began springing up in the mid-30s, usually as fusions of partners already working together: research institutes, biotech companies, university departments, maybe a hospital or clinic. Gathering them under one roof eliminated some odd redundancies and opened new career paths. Twenty years ago, even students who did their PhD in a lab had to get degrees from a university, although only a fraction ultimately ended up in academia. Now they can advance in any department, with our without a degree. This has also relaxed the rat race of “publish or perish,” because in the hybrid environment, it is more important for the whole system to work than for one group to be extremely successful.

Many of these changes stem from a huge increase in amazing products flowing from biomedical research. In 2033 a lab at Andrea’s institute developed a strain of bacteria that not only digests plastic but expends energy in the process. It only took four years to turn that discovery into an operational power plant that could be cloned across the world. Today the entire campus is fueled on recycled plastic. Somebody recently mentioned a strain of bacteria that could eat cigarette butts, but it might be a joke.

Another group has found a way to watch cellular signaling networks assemble and transmit information to the genome in real time across an entire organism. And a lab in the basement is studying a microscopic life form brought back by the expedition to Europa. It’s not based on DNA – from its chemistry, it shouldn’t even be alive. Somehow, it is.

* * * * *

Mondays, the first thing on Andrea’s agenda is a lab meeting. Over the years she has assembled an eclectic group of individuals who are wildly interesting in all kinds of ways: from many disciplines, nationalities, ethnicities, lifestyle orientations, outside interests. The differences bring loads of energy into any discussion and great food at lab parties.

When there’s a position to fill she looks beyond each candidate’s purely scientific accomplishments and tries to find someone who may also be in need. Several years ago she hired two scientists whose institute had been submerged in the Florida floods, then picked up someone fleeing from the earthquake in Ethiopia. Great desperation can be transformed into great inspiration if you give it a chance.

Andrea’s own lab is building a synthetic micro-particle that will travel through the bloodstream and function like an artificial ribosome, able to string any combination of amino acids into a protein or antigen. It doesn’t need an mRNA template; a scientist sitting at a computer beams it a sequence. Achieving this might eliminate the need for some vaccines and antibiotics.

It will also make them rich – and not just her group. In hybrid institutes, all employees are stakeholders; if the institute profits, everyone does. That includes the city and the federal and transnational entities that built the institute. In a few years, the original investments will be paid off, and then the excess profits will be used for environmental and international aid projects.

This system reflects the most important lesson from the last 25 years: science is people, and they are not off on an island somewhere. They are embedded in a community and a world in which we will all sink or all swim, together.

 Russ Hodge

Header image created with Bing KI

Used prompt text

Create a picture of a scientific city in the future in blue/pink tones according to the following ideas:

On June 14, 2049, a patient with an undiagnosed but apparently viral illness was admitted to the emergency room in Hanover, Germany. A blood sample was taken, inserted into a SmartTube® and immediately analyzed by the hospital's automated genomics facility. Within minutes, an abnormal sequence was detected and transmitted to the Global Virus Alert Network (GVAW), which compared it to an atlas of all known viruses and hosts. Artificial intelligence then deduced the most likely origin and the steps in its evolution. This confirmed that the patient was suffering from a new viral infection, a variant of a strain normally found in mice. Three hours later, the actual virus was isolated and fully sequenced. Overnight, the health center in Kolkata identified 17 potential antigens for vaccines. The Clinical Organoid Research Clinic in Cairo immediately began robotic testing on its collection, which had a coverage of about 500,000 human genomes. It usually took about a week to get a reliable answer. Five versions were eventually sent to open molecular printers in hospitals, clinics and doctors' offices around the world, with recommendations for selecting the right version for each patient based on specific genomic markers.

Andrea Carriere found out about the virus when she took the subway to her institute. The monitor on her seat identified her and delivered messages tailored to her. Another article reported that the world population was on track to reach a steady state in just a few years. That's the result of 25 years of male contraceptive pills, major international efforts for women's rights and comprehensive incentive programs. And it was the tenth anniversary of synthetic meat products winning the International Gourmet Award, beating natural meat in all categories.

On Mondays, Andrea goes to the lab unless the National Energy Matrix (NEM) tells her to stay home. The energy consumption of her home, her office and the country as a whole is constantly monitored and evaluated: Who is taking the train, can a connection be canceled? Will working from home on a particular day save or strain the system? She's already pushed her schedule back an hour, and if she's willing to change it again, she'll earn points with the NEM, perhaps enough for a vacation.

Andrea is the CEO of an institute that is typical of today's hybrid research organizations, which have dissolved the old boundaries between higher education, research and business. They emerged in the mid-1930s, usually as mergers of already collaborating partners: research institutes, biotech companies, university departments, perhaps a hospital or clinic. Bringing them together under one roof eliminated some strange redundancies and opened up new career paths. Twenty years ago, even students who did their PhD in a lab had to do a degree at a university, although only a fraction ended up in academia. Now they can advance in any department, with or without a degree. This has also defused the race for publications. "Publish or perish" no longer applies, because in the hybrid environment it is more important that the whole system works than that one group is extremely successful.

Many of these changes are due to the enormous growth of impressive products from biomedical research. In 2033, a lab at Andrea's institute developed a strain of bacteria that not only digests plastic, but also releases energy in the process. It took just four years to turn this discovery into an operational power plant that could be cloned worldwide. Today, the entire campus is powered by recycled plastic. Someone recently talked about a strain of bacteria that could eat cigarette butts, but they could have been joking.

Another group has found a way to observe cellular signaling networks in real time as they assemble throughout the organism and transmit information to the genome. And a laboratory in the basement is studying a microscopic life form that was brought back from the expedition to Jupiter's moon Europa. It is not based on DNA - in terms of its chemistry, it should not even be alive. But somehow it is.

On Mondays, the lab meeting is the first thing on Andrea's agenda. Over the years, she has assembled a colorful group, people who are extremely interesting in many ways: from many disciplines, with different nationalities, ethnicities, lifestyle orientations and interests beyond work. The differences make every discussion lively and they bring great food to the lab parties.

When a position is open, she doesn't just look at the purely scientific achievements of the candidates and tries to find someone who might need help. A few years ago, it hired two researchers whose institute had been flooded in the Florida floods and then employed someone who had fled the earthquake in Ethiopia. Great despair can be turned into great inspiration if you give people a chance.

Andrea's own laboratory is developing a synthetic microparticle that will travel through the bloodstream and function like an artificial ribosome. It is capable of linking any combination of amino acids to form a protein or antigen. It does not need an mRNA template for this; someone sitting at a computer transmits a sequence to it. If this succeeds, some vaccines and antibiotics would no longer be needed.

It will also make them rich - and not just their group. In hybrid institutes, all employees are stakeholders; if the institute makes a profit, everyone benefits. This includes the city and the federal and transnational institutions that built the institute. In a few years, the initial investment will be repaid, and then the surplus profits will be used for environmental and international aid projects.

This system reflects the most important lesson of the last 25 years: science is people, and they are not on an island somewhere. They are embedded in a community and a world in which we will all sink or swim together.